Gigaom Pro has a comprehensive look at the mobile payments landscape and draws some conclusions for consumer adoption over the next 5 years. The bottom line is that consumer’s switching to mobile wallets will only come if there are additional benefits like deals and offers and provide greater convenience than simply using credit cards.
From the report (subscription required):
- The value of global mobile payment transactions is expected to grow from $31.8 billion in 2011 to $753 billion by 2015.
- NFC technology presents the greatest opportunity for mobile payments, and many global companies are positioning themselves to participate in the ecosystem.
- While the use of 2D bar codes in mobile marketing is gaining momentum, use of the technology for mobile transactions remains a relatively new concept. The launch and growth of NFC technology will ultimately replace the 2D-bar-code solution as users become more accustomed to tapping to pay vs. scanning.
- Many retailers are seeing the potential of the mobile web and are thus building mobile websites and incorporating mobile-payments services’ driving growth.
- The mobile payments market will accelerate much faster in North America and Europe. A fair amount of infrastructure is already in place, and Google Wallets will help drive merchants to upgrade, substantially increasing the number of stores where NFC can be used.
- The penetration of NFC in developing regions such as the Middle East, Africa and Latin America will be much slower, as merchants are much less willing or able to upgrade POS systems.”