NFC adoption: 4 to 6 years out

Dan Schulman, group president, Enterprise Growth, at American Express

American Express group president Dan Schulman says that wide spread adoption of NFC technology is four to six years out.  Schilman cites one key but sometimes overlooked issue: its not a value proposition change, its a form factor change.

Schilman offers some addition keen insight into the evolution of mobile payment.

From NFC Times:

“I know there is a lot of conversation around tapping your phone at the point of sale,” he said. “My view is, that is a form-factor change and not a value-proposition change and form factor changes actually take a long time to come about.”

“My view of the world is fundamentally different from that,” he said. “Imagine if, instead of tapping your phone at the point of sale you, metaphorically speaking, tapped your phone as you entered into a retailer. And you don’t even need to tap. You could do it through geofencing; you could do it through any number of techniques.”

“The way to define your commerce identification is not just your financial information to complete the transaction, but basically the brand that you want to shop for, the shopping list, coupons that you may have, the budget that you may have, and you basically tap that on the doorway and when you tap that on the doorway, you let that retailer know exactly who you are and what you want. So that merchant then can come back with a customized set of offers specifically for you.”

“The whole idea around digital commerce, which is the future of commerce, is all around data,” he said. “Data is the holy grail of digital commerce. Data allows us to know as marketers when we advertise something online, and (consumers) drag that into our wallet and then somebody actually taps their phone against the point of sale, we know, did you actually respond to that offer. Did you buy it? And what else did you buy when you responded to that offer? Think of how powerful that data is to marketers.”

“My view on NFC is, it’s still four to six years out only because you don’t have enough phones with the NFC chip in them yet,” Schulman said. “But people turn over their phones every 18 to 36 months and with natural upgrade cycles at the point of sale, every, call it, four years or so.”

About Daniel Davenport

Daniel is a digital media executive with internet and broadcast experience. Daniel is currently the executive strategy director at THINK Interactive.

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